columns  image  
  The Wealth  
  spacer  
spacer

7 Signs of Change Commentary - 7 Signs of a Changing Economy - Investor Action List - Exit Strategy
   

7 Signs of Change Commentary

 

Monthly Conference Calls with Jim Lunney

Click here to download the latest edition of the 7 Signs of Change Commentary

Past editions:

July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009

November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009

February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008

July 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
January 2008
December 2007



top

           
Listen to internet radio with James Lunney on Blog Talk Radio

7 Signs of a Changing Economy

  1. The Personal Consumption Expenditure drops for three consecutive months.  www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

  2. Institutional “Money Flow”: which way is the wind blowing and how hard: www.wordenbrothers.com, Barrons – Commitment of Trades posts hedging data.

  3. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) trending down for three to four months. www.businesscycle.com  

  4. Employment rate:

  5. Durable goods spending flattens and/or decreases for four to five months out of six
    www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

  6. S&P 500 EPS growth drops for two or more quarters
    www.standardandpoors.com

  7. Inflation/Deflation

Investor "Action List"

  • Correctly title assets and various investment accounts

  • Be certain all retirement plan beneficiary information is current. Have people as beneficiaries versus entities, i.e. trust to maximize “stretch” choices

  • Wealth management team in place

  • Watch the 7 Signs of a Changing Economy “trend observation” on this website to have a sense of which investment season we are changing to

  • Consider implementing hedging strategies

  • Consider converting pre-tax retirement accounts if you qualify before 2010 and in 2010 if you don’t, to avoid potentially higher tax rates on the assets in the future


"Exit" Strategy

 

WHAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT: The dates and percentage amounts by which you may want to consider divesting your U.S. assets. (Watch the 7 Signs of a Changing Economy at www.wealthstratgroup.com.)

 

WHAT THIS TELLS YOU: Since no one knows the future, how it will unfold, or when a catalyst may cause the next up or down bump, we need to timeline our plan to deal with these unknowns. The first thing you can do to protect your wealth during the economic winter is to systematically divest your holdings over time. This is the opposite of the popular dollar cost averaging strategy which is used to buy similar dollar amounts of an investment over time.

 

WHAT THIS MEANS: For the Great Winter in our midst, this means that by the end of April 2008 (“Sell in May and go away”), you may choose to liquidate approximately 10 percent of your equity positions. In January 2009, you could liquidate another 15 to 20 percent, which would make you 25 to 30 percent out of the equity markets. In approximately April 2009, liquidate an additional 15 to 20 percent, so that you’re 40 to 50 percent divested in common stock. Around December 2009, liquidate 20 to 30 percent, bringing you to 60 to 80 percent out of equity.

 

Home | About Us | Strategy | Wealth Management | The Solution Network™ | 7 Signs of Change | 7 Signs of Change Commentary | FAQ | Press Room | Free Newsletter Signup | My Account | Open an Account | Contact Us

Securities and Advisory Services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC

spacer

 
spacer spacer spacer